A compendium of Predictions for 2016 from News Sources more
This month’s focus is on the Fed’s pending interest rate hike.How will the Fed interpret economic developments in the nextfew days? Will the latest improvement in labor market data beenough to push them to a September rate hike? more
Online lenders to small businesses use innovative methods to gauge creditworthinessBanks can leverage their big data capabilities to more effectively serve customersSmall businesses customers heavily favor face-to-face interaction, making the retail bank indispensable more
Signs of weakened liquidity are evident across fixed income markets. Caused by supply and demand imbalances, the most visible changes of the post-recession liquidity conditions are buy-side dominance… more
Governor of Puerto Rico calls for restructuring and reform on $72 billion debt. Puerto Rico met its debt payments due Wednesday, avoiding default. Population outflow and low business investment suggest… more
Short-term financial volatility is expected but will fade as things shake out for Greece. U.S. trade, investment, and banking exposure to Greece remains very low. Fed unlikely to delay first rate hike… more
The rapid rise of trade in part of components –in the context of an increasingly important global production chain – is a key future of Asia’s economic miracle. This paper aims at analyzing empirically… more
In June, the asset purchase programme was ahead of the set monthly target of EUR60bn, (EUR62.9bn). We still think that inviting speculation over an early withdrawal of stimuli would be both premature… more
We investigate the role of the judicial system on whether or not the firms obtain the credit they applied for, by looking at the strength of the creditor protection, the strength of property rights, the… more
Building on the literature on systemic risk and financial contagion, the paper introduces estimated network linkages into an early-warning model to predict bank distress among European banks. We use multivariate… more
In this paper we consider the relation between firms financial structure, access to external finance and labor productivity using a large dataset of firm-level data for Euro-area countries during the… more
This paper studies the great collapse in value added trade using a structural decomposition analysis. We show that changes in vertical specialisation accounted for almost half of the great trade collapse… more
The Great Recession and the subsequent European crisis may have long-lasting effects on aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and, hence, on macroeconomic performance over the medium and long-run. Besides… more
This paper studies spillovers across sovereign debt markets in the wake of sovereign rating changes. We compile an extensive dataset covering all announcements by the three major agencies (Standard &… more
I study economies where banks do not fully internalize the social costs of default, which distorts their lending decisions. In all these economies, a common general equilibrium effect leads to aggregate… more
In this watch, we examine key issues facing India's banking sector, their impact on banks' ability to support India's growth up-cycle, the effectiveness of recent policy measures to tackle banks’ inherent… more
Housing Recovery Back on Track 2H15, but Homeownership Still in Decline. Building Permits and Consumer Expectations Support Leading Index Strength. more
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