A compendium of Predictions for 2016 from News Sources more
Capital flows into the euro area were particularly large in the mid-2000s and the share of foreign holdings of euro area securities increased substantially between the introduction of the euro and the… more
Weak first quarter GDP could be reflecting residual seasonality. Our nowcasting model projects a moderate rebound in 2Q15 of 2.2% QoQ annualized. A modest growth rate in 2Q may signal uncertainty regarding… more
Economic growth will probably weaken in large areas of the world in 2015, resulting in lower global growth. The eurozone is one of the few large global economies that has some momentum, driven by low… more
In recent months, the confidence indicators have continued to improve, supported by good activity data. The pace of growth in private consumption is moderating slightly after performing well since mid-2014… more
Projections for long-term 10-year interest rates revised down to 2.3%. Government debt estimated to be 101% of GDP in 2039, down from last year. No major revisions in federal spending and revenues. more
Hayek argues that local knowledge is a key for understanding whether production should be decentralized. This paper tests Hayek’s predictions by examining the causes of the Chinese government’s decision… more
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) is published on a monthly basis ahead of final PMI data, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector… more
Today, across Europe and Central Asia, societies are aging, but people are not necessarily living longer. This demographic trend—–caused by a decrease in fertility rates rather than improved longevity—–presents… more
Global growth is expected to be 2.8 percent in 2015, lower than anticipated in January. Growth is expected to pick up to 3.2 percent in 2016–17, broadly in line with previous forecasts. Developing economies… more
Although keeping bank supervision independent from macroprudential supervision may ensure more checks and balances, placing bank supervision in the central bank could exploit synergies with macroprudential… more
Traditional measures of trade diversification only take into account contemporaneous export baskets. These measures fail to capture a country’s ability to respond to shocks by allocating factors of production… more
In June, the PMI indicates a widespread cross-sector expansion of activity at the highest rate in four years, despite the Greek crisis. By country, growth remains robust in Germany and in the periphery… more
The final estimate for real GDP growth met our expectations for a minor contraction of -0.2% QoQ SAAR in the first quarter. Growth was revised upward for almost all components, including personal consumption… more
The European Council today discussed the “Five Presidents Report” on completing Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union. This milestone towards more integrated Eurozone governance builds on the work initiated… more
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