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Dovish Views Dominate as FOMC Holds Back on Rate Hike• Low inflation and global financial market volatility to blame for another FOMC delay• A few members pushed out expectations for liftoff – now 3 votes… more
Selected quotes today from experts on the likelihood of GREXIT. more
The recent sharp declines in Chinese stock prices have been met with a spate of government counter-measures aimed at supporting the market. Back in May, we discussed our thoughts on the liquidity-driven… more
The growth outlook for China this year and next is unchanged. Stimulus efforts in 2014 struggled to raise growth to the 7.5% target, and as we expected the growth target for 2015 was lowered to “around”… more
We find ourselves one year on from Narendra Modi’s electoral victory; a stunning result which delivered a powerful mandate. However, while important steps have been taken which reduce macroeconomic vulnerabilities… more
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25bps last Saturday, the fourth time since November 2014 and effective from June 28; at the same time, a targeted cut in the Reserve… more
Myanmar's present government has restored a measure of fiscal discipline, reoriented fiscal priorities, and established a clear set of fiscal objectives in the Framework for Economic and Social Reforms… more
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The twin shocks of a significant strengthening of the US dollar and a sharp plunge in oil prices have heightened volatility in the foreign exchange markets in recent months. While emerging market currencies… more
Tonight, the Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey delivered his second Federal Budget. Set in the context of a weakening local economy and a Federal Government keen to bring its $41.1 billion budget deficit back… more
After the political and economic failure of last year’s budget, this year’s Budget represents a significant change in focus for the Government. Not only was it relatively ‘boring’ with no major surprises… more
This infographic introduces China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative and recent investment in Pakistan.To view this file as a registered user please click on download, if you are not a registered user please… more
Yesterday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut the required reserve ratio (RRR) by 100 bps to 18.5%, effective from April 20th. It is the second time of a universal RRR cut since last November when… more
We make the first attempt in the literature to empirically examine the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy on trade in other countries. In a large sector-level bilateral trade dataset of 137 countries… more
Damping high expectations of big bang reforms from India’s FY16 (Year ending March 2016) Union Budget on February 28th, the Modi Government maintained its focus on incremental reforms to strengthen India’s… more
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.25 per cent.Growth in the global economy continued at a moderate pace in 2014. A similar performance is expected by most observers… more
This paper models the PBC’s operating procedures in a two-stage vector autoregression framework. We decompose changes in policy variables into exogenous and endogenous components in order to find a “clean”… more
The departure from the Modigliani-Miller conditions, due for instance to market incompleteness, asymmetric information or taxation, tends to increase the importance of indirect channels by which monetary… more
On February 28th India’s Modi government will present its first full year Union Budget for the year ending March 2016 (FY16). The ruling BJP led alliance headed by Mr. Modi won a landslide victory in… more
Ever since commodity prices and the mining investment boom peaked 3 or 4 years ago there has been a constant chorus of doom regarding the Australian economy: the reversal of the mining boom will knock… more
India’s benchmark CPI inflation rose at a slower-than-expected pace in December 2014 at 5.0% y/y (Consensus: 5.3%), after easing to 8 year low of 4.4% in the previous month. The pick-up was mainly led… more
The Asia First news database goes back for four months to October 2013 (though in some cases we hold earlier
new headlines). As each day passes we add to the timespan that the database covers. We currently hold approx. 100,000 stories and collect about 5,000 stories each day.